To become Prime Minister, you have to know how to
play the “game” and convince the voters that you are the person who can best
represent their interests. You do NOT need actually to be that person, you just
require enough media owners and power brokers that it is in their interests to
present you in that light.
Boris has cast himself as the jovial mate who
could take a joke on ‘Have I Got News For You’ whilst writing articles for the
Daily Telegraph that presented our European neighbours as the enemies of a
supposed traditional British way of life. His undistinguished but significant
years as Mayor of London were peppered with wasted money and abandoned
projects: the sole achievement was following the initiative of Ken Livingstone,
the previous Mayor, in expanding the area covered by the congestion charge in
cutting down exhaust emissions in the centre of the capital. Eventually he
became a Member of Parliament whilst ensuring that his laddish “charm” kept him
as a favourite amongst the rank and file of the Conservative Party.
The rise of the far right throughout Europe and
the UK decided him that this was a better vehicle for him to ride on than the
more traditional one- nation Conservatism that had dominated before the rise of
UKIP and the expertise of men like Dominic Cumming in knowing how to sway
public opinion. His decision to represent the most Eurosceptic faction of the
Party would keep him popular with many in the grass roots despite his disastrous
performance as Foreign Secretary from 2016 to 2018.
The significant election of Donald Trump as the
USA President could have been a major problem for Johnson. His tendency to make
off-the-cuff remarks included accusing Trump of being "out of his
mind" and of possessing "stupefying ignorance". The
repeated gaffes and inappropriate remarks often undermined any progress with
Britain's allies and opponents. He joked about dead bodies lying about in Libya
and recited Kipling to offend those in Burma. His failings even in defending UK citizens
abroad could have been his undoing.
Nick Dunn, one of six British men who were detained while working
as security guards on an anti-piracy vessel in the Indian Ocean in 2013, spent
four years in an Indian prison. Eventually, on release, he explained how
Johnson had done nothing to secure the release of himself and his colleagues
for fear of threatening a potential trade deal. Perhaps most damaging of all
was Johnson’s inaccurate
suggestion that the detained British Iranian national Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe
had been in Iran training journalists, which her family and supporters
said had damaged their campaign to secure her release. Detained in Iran since April
2016, in September 2016 she was sentenced to five years' imprisonment allegedly
for "plotting to topple the Iranian government". (She was temporarily
released on 17 March 2020).
Johnson’s offending friends and allies, his inability to defend UK
citizens abroad, nor his inability to view the damage Brexit brings to UK
citizens at home, have not been significant factors in determining whether he
should be the Prime Minister. His ability to turn a quick joke, his quirky
personality and manner that ingratiates those keen to ensure that the Party
remains in power have been far more important. The accusation that he could
have led a more determined campaign in countering the effects of the
coronavirus much earlier fails to take into account that at no point in his
career has he been a leader. On Brexit he was led by Nigel Farage, even as
London’s Mayor he followed Ken Livingstone’s initiative, and on becoming Prime
Minister he was led by Dominic Cumming. Even on the pandemic, he declares that
he is merely following the advice of experts.
The attacks on Johnson as a leader are irrelevant as he is not,
nor ever has been, a leader. The UK’s influence in the world has been
diminishing steadily for over half a century. In leaving the EU and in electing
an unusually weak character as our Prime Minister, the UK is accelerating its
way down this path. Those in power see the demise of UK citizens as an
opportunity to exploit those with weaker employment rights who have,
simultaneously, had to cope with much worse living conditions due to the
pandemic and the effects of climate change upon the land. Boris Johnson as
Prime Minister suits their agenda perfectly: a man who will follow their lead
without qualms.
The massive financial programme announced by the Chancellor, Rishi
Sunak, was a forced move for any government concerned about the possibility of
mass food riots. Again, this showed Johnson as following his Chancellor’s lead
rather than leading from the front. Sunak, with his economics background, was
far more likely to provide a persuasive account of the government’s handling
than Johnson with his background as a part-time journalist and TV comic.
As the country faces consecutive (and occasionally simultaneous)
crises, it is uncertain which of Johnson’s credentials as Prime Minister will
serve him well. The falling standards of living post-Brexit, the consequences
of years of “austerity” has on the NHS and Social Services, the increasing
frequency of calamitous meteorological events caused by global warming, the
internal divisiveness generated within the United Kingdom – especially in
Scotland and Northern Ireland – do not play well to a man more attuned to
hoping that charm and good humour would always work as a basic strategy in
tackling major problems.
Given these fundamental problems for the “leader” who cannot lead,
we should expect that he will gravitate towards powers that he feels will
provide the leadership that is required and to which he can next “hitch his
wagon”. Johnson has been adept in achieving this in the past. He has a seasoned
instinct for getting himself people or causes that can carry him forward.
Whilst his current senior advisor has brought Johnson the premiership, it is
unlikely that Dominic Cumming will be able to provide simple ways forward in
the face of these systematic, large-scale issues. Marketing expertise will
still be required: but more radical answers to these issues than those
currently espoused by his friends on the far right will be the only ones that
can bring Johnson through these current and upcoming crises. Radical solutions
grounded in reality rather than the imagery and media postures so beloved of
the far right will be the only ones that should attract a canny player like
Johnson who is well aware of the games he has been playing to achieve power.
Critics of Johnson who see him as basically lazy, unintelligent
and unethical do not believe that he will be able to see himself (nor us)
through these crises. They believe that he is bound to fail, if only because it
would need a truly remarkable leader of a divided and declining world power to
take us through. However, perhaps those same critics might pause for a moment
and wonder exactly what leader they would like to see leading Boris Johnson.
Replacing him with a Labour (or another Party’s) leader seems to be a long way
off. The next election is not due for five years, by which time many of these
crises will have been experienced by those of us who live here. It may be more
practical to identify which of the realistic solutions to these crises are likely
to attract Johnson’s attention and nose for an easy ride. Given the
unprecedented breaking away from established, Conservative economic orthodoxy
caused by the pandemic; it may be possible to attract Johnson towards further
spending that could be seen to directly address the fundamental problems
generated by Brexit, the climate emergency and how to cope with an ageing
population. Massive investment in public works, health and education that
continue where the pandemic cash injection left off might provide Johnson with
a new lead to follow – John Maynard Keynes.
